Start a Tilt Challenge
2026 AI Competition
TIME REMAINING
61 days
Entries for the Start a Tilt Challenge (event: “2026 AI Competition”). Eligible entries are scored on thesis quality, Contribution Score, and entry timing under the Official Rules — not on raw returns. Baskets are paper portfolios; nothing shown here is investable, an investment recommendation, or an indication of investment merit. Free to enter; no purchase necessary.
Performance for periods before an entry’s publication is hypothetical and backfilled; not actual trading results.
Entries
AI winners & losers
I'm betting on three categories of winners for the AI theme in the next months/years: 1\. Disappearing of the tech "middle class" 📈 LONG Technology mega-cap: the cost expenditure of building data centers, and ability for mega-cap tech...
AI Won't Lift Software Evenly. It Will Split It in Two.
The consensus on AI and software is a rising-tide story: models get better, every application gets more valuable, the whole category floats up together. That story is half right, and the wrong half is the expensive one. AI doesn't lift...
Incalculable
NVIDIA began its career as a company specializing in graphics computing, a leading player in this field that enabled gamers around the world; it has now abandoned gamers and developers to concentrate on AI data centers, which are...
Indexes are great, but...
It's full of fat and you're giving the companies maintaining the index ETFs free money to do nothing. It's full of useless duplicate companies that only exist to drag down the entire group. Just like the worst performers of a classroom or...
Long power producers and electrical infrastructure, not AI software
The market still talks about AI as a software story. I think Q3 is increasingly a power availability story. The key bottleneck is no longer training models. It’s deploying enough compute at scale. Every new AI model announcement...
Q3 Thesis: The Data Toll Booth
Among media and software companies, the line between Q3 winners and losers won't be drawn by sector — it'll be drawn by who owns a proprietary data corpus that AI companies need and customers will pay to have turned into intelligence. Two...
Slight Correction in AI Market
Enterprise investment in AI has been astronomical. But now the bill is due and they're not seeing the RoI they were promised. Tons of money was raised basically because of the game theory of Artificial Super Intelligence. Even if the odds...
Software is dead
Software Is Dead. Long Live Software. An investment thesis written as a protocol — for a reasoning agent, not a pitch audience. Read the claims, apply the screen, check the falsifiers. Purpose Identify companies whose value derives from...
The AI Trade After the Obvious Part
The easy AI thesis is no longer scarce. Everyone knows the large models matter. Everyone knows @Nvidia matters. Everyone knows hyperscaler capex matters. Everyone can say “agents,” “compute,” “power bottleneck,” and “data centers” without...
The Datacenter Supercycle
For most of the last decade, datacenter investment was a quietly growing line item — important, but unglamorous. That era is over. We are now in the middle of what analysts are calling a datacenter supercycle, a sustained, decade-long...
The Pinnacle of Personalization
AI, actually Generative Artificial Intelligence, has already shown an ability to quickly get a clear sense of individual wants, needs, and tendencies. That has already been applied to a range of marketing activities that can be...
The token bill comes due
Subsidized intelligence is the bubble. Q3 is when the invoice arrives. The AI trade rests on a number almost nobody prices: the true cost of a token. Every demo that wows a boardroom, every "agent" that drafts a contract or reconciles a...