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Composition
Paper basket composition
as of 2026-07-31Slight Correction in AI Market
We AI is valuable but not worth the current valuation
Enterprise investment in AI has been astronomical. But now the bill is due and they're not seeing the RoI they were promised. Tons of money was raised basically because of the game theory of Artificial Super Intelligence. Even if the odds of this technology becoming ASI is Less than 1% - the bet is still worth making because the returns would be so impactful.
Now I think the market has to recon with the plateau of this generation of technology. While it was a radical breakthrough, it's not improving itself at an accelerated rate. The rate of performance growth is decaying.
I think there will be something that socks the Market, possibly something like a Chinese lab releasing a frontier-caliber model that embarrasses the spend American companies have put into AI. The AI space will contract. It's not falling that much, but a substantial correction. maybe a 25-30% decline over a year or two before stabilizing and rising back up again.
For the most part, things will continue business as usual. There might be some contractions in consumer spending. Conflict in the middle east could exasperate oil reserves and send the cost of energy (and therefore AI) even higher.